Good Measure

The Evidence Base

Mapping the loneliness epidemic, the collapse of social infrastructure, and the structural opportunity for values-aligned drinks.

Section 01

The Loneliness Epidemic

A public health emergency with mortality effects comparable to smoking 15 cigarettes a day.

50%
of US adults lonely
before the pandemic
Surgeon General 2023
67%
of Gen Z classified
as lonely
Cigna/UCLA 2025
52M
Americans experience
daily loneliness
Gallup 2024
15
cigarettes/day —
mortality equivalent
Holt-Lunstad

Loneliness by Generation

+26%
Premature mortality from loneliness
Holt-Lunstad 2015
+29%
Coronary heart disease risk
Valtorta et al. 2016
+32%
Stroke risk from poor social ties
Valtorta et al. 2016
871K
Deaths globally per year
WHO Commission 2025
$154B
Annual US employer cost
Cigna/Evernorth
Sources: US Surgeon General 2023 · Cigna/Evernorth 2025 · Gallup 2024 · Holt-Lunstad (2010, 2015) · Valtorta et al. 2016 · WHO Commission 2025
Section 02

The Collapse of Social Infrastructure

Two decades of decline in the places, rituals, and relationships that held us together.

In-Person Friend Time — Min/Day (Ages 15–25)

The Friendship Recession

Collapse of Third Places

15,000+
UK pubs closed since 2000
BBPA 2025
84%→38%
Daily family dinners (Silent Gen → Gen Z)
Survey Center on American Life
99 min
More time at home per day (2003 vs 2022)
Sociological Science 2024
8/week
UK pubs still closing in 2025
BBPA 2025
Sources: ATUS/BLS · Cox/American Perspectives Survey · BBPA 2025 · Gallup · Sociological Science 2024
Section 03

The Demand Signal

Gen Z is rebuilding social infrastructure — they want connection, not content.

Growth in New Social Formats (YoY %)

95%
Want online interests explored through in-person events
Eventbrite 2025
84%
Built friendships through interest-based gatherings
Eventbrite 2025
79%
Drawn to events mixing multiple interests
Eventbrite 2025
66%
Made new friends through running groups
Strava 2024
$1.5T
Membership economy by 2033 — 437% growth
0
Oxytocin released via text — same as no contact
Seltzer et al. 2012
Sources: Eventbrite 2025 · Strava 2024 · Mastercard Economics · Seltzer et al. 2012 · Common Sense Media
Section 04

The Drinks Category Shift

Drinking less, demanding more, spending differently.

US Adults Who Drink — 20-Year Decline

Gen Z Moderation Intent

Market Opportunity — Adjacent Categories ($B)

$925M
US NA off-premise sales
NielsenIQ 2025
+22%
Year-over-year NA growth
NielsenIQ 2025
$5B
Projected US NA market by 2028
IWSR 2025
$2.7T
Gen Z global spending power
World Data Lab 2024
$12T
Gen Z projected spending by 2030
Bank of America 2025
Sources: Gallup 2025 · NielsenIQ 2025 · IWSR 2025 · Grand View Research · World Data Lab
Section 05

The Trust Gap Is the Opportunity

88% distrust ESG claims, yet 72% say certification matters.

The Greenwashing Problem

But Certification Works

9,368
B Corps globally ($130B+ revenue)
2.3×
Sustainable CPG growth vs conventional
NYU Stern
26.6%
Price premium for sustainable products
NYU Stern
$1.57T
Global impact investing AUM
GIIN 2024
Lululemon
$10.6B
Revenue FY24
Soho House
$2.7B
Taken private 2025
CrossFit
10-20×
Gym pricing premium
Athletic Brewing
$800M
Valuation
Glossier
70%
Peer-to-peer growth
Peloton
89%
12-mo retention
Sources: McKinsey · B Lab 2023 · NYU Stern · GIIN 2024 · Edelman Trust 2025 · Company filings